NEM spot price vs demand: how prices rise near peak demand
How spot price responds to demand
Each 5-minute dispatch interval's demand is shown as a percentage of the highest demand in the 365 days up to that day. That puts the NEM and states of different sizes on one scale, and it stops load growth or a mild year from shifting the picture: 90% means close to this year's peak, whatever that peak was in MW.
The intervals are grouped into 10%-wide bands of demand (0-10%, 10-20%, and so on).
NEM-wide (the default) adds the five regions' demand together in each interval and compares it with the NEM's own yearly peak, the highest that combined demand reached. Its price is the five regional prices averaged by demand, so a spike in one small region moves it less than the same spike in New South Wales. Pick a state to see one region on its own.
Demand is AEMO operational demand (TOTALDEMAND): it excludes rooftop solar, so sunny middays show up as low demand. Prices are the 5-minute regional spot price.
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Figures as of 8 November 2026, 1:43 am NEM time.
- 69.66 $/MWh average price
- 145.8 $/MWh average price, demand at 80%+ of peak
- 10.6 $/MWh average price, demand under 50% of peak
- 6.39% of time at 80%+ of peak
- 0.6168 rank correlation, demand vs price
- 105,139 5-minute intervals
Typical price at each demand level
Each box is the middle half of prices (25th to 75th percentile) with the median, and the dashed line is the average. Whiskers reach the 10th and 90th percentiles. Boxes that climb past 80% mean scarcity pricing near the peak.
| demand_pct_of_yearly_peak | p10_price | p25_price | median_price | mean_price | p75_price | p90_price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–30% | -28.78 | -27.47 | -24.29 | -24.4 | -18.87 | -16.44 |
| 30–40% | -23.53 | -15.88 | -7.718 | -4.006 | 3.807 | 22.07 |
| 40–50% | -11.74 | -3.571 | 8.147 | 14.07 | 26.79 | 43.34 |
| 50–60% | 8.119 | 29.57 | 49.36 | 55.6 | 74 | 97.31 |
| 60–70% | 34.05 | 49.14 | 69.78 | 75.4 | 94.39 | 115.5 |
| 70–80% | 52.86 | 67.64 | 87.43 | 94.09 | 110.2 | 132.3 |
| 80–90% | 64.94 | 81.03 | 104.6 | 137.6 | 130.4 | 169.7 |
| 90–100% | 91.7 | 118.2 | 146.1 | 223.6 | 193.7 | 282.8 |
How often price hits the extremes
Negative prices sit at the low-demand end, when rooftop solar pushes operational demand down; prices above $300 crowd the high-demand end. The few intervals near 100% decide most of a year's spike revenue.
| demand_pct_of_yearly_peak | negative_pct | over_300_pct |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | 100 | 0 |
| 35 | 67 | 0 |
| 45 | 32.97 | 0.01092 |
| 55 | 4.775 | 0.06059 |
| 65 | 0.64 | 0.09846 |
| 75 | 0.08882 | 0.2387 |
| 85 | 0.08229 | 1.909 |
| 95 | 0.1558 | 8.255 |
Where prices fall at each demand level
Each column adds up to 100%: read down a column to see the spread of prices at that demand. Bands with few intervals (check the time chart below) can swing on a handful of events.
| demand_pct_of_yearly_peak | price_band | pct_of_intervals |
|---|---|---|
| 45 | $1,000+ | 0.01092 |
| 55 | $1,000+ | 0.04328 |
| 65 | $1,000+ | 0.04344 |
| 75 | $1,000+ | 0.08882 |
| 85 | $1,000+ | 0.971 |
| 95 | $1,000+ | 2.336 |
| 55 | $300-1,000 | 0.01731 |
| 65 | $300-1,000 | 0.05502 |
| 75 | $300-1,000 | 0.1499 |
| 85 | $300-1,000 | 0.9381 |
| 95 | $300-1,000 | 5.919 |
| 55 | $200-300 | 0.2481 |
Time spent at each demand level
How rare high demand is. The band nearest 100% often holds only a few hours, so its prices rest on a handful of days.
| demand_pct_of_yearly_peak | share_of_time_pct |
|---|---|
| 25 | 0.08085 |
| 35 | 1.877 |
| 45 | 8.71 |
| 55 | 32.97 |
| 65 | 32.84 |
| 75 | 17.13 |
| 85 | 5.779 |
| 95 | 0.6106 |
Daily peak vs trailing yearly peak
The stepped line is the denominator. It steps up when a new peak is set, and down when a peak drops out of the 365-day window.
| time | daily_peak_demand_mw | rolling_yearly_peak_mw |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 | 24,090 | 33,580 |
| 2026-11-07 | 23,670 | 33,580 |
| 2026-11-08 | 20,520 | 33,580 |
Daily peak demand vs daily average price
One dot per day. Expensive days tend to be days that came close to the yearly peak; a high-priced day at modest demand points to something else, such as an outage or low wind.
| daily_peak_pct_of_yearly_peak | season | daily_avg_price |
|---|---|---|
| 76.19 | Spring | 28.54 |
| 69.95 | Spring | 67.83 |
| 74.6 | Spring | 79.81 |
| 75.49 | Spring | 42.95 |
| 72.05 | Spring | 44.6 |
| 73.75 | Spring | 36.66 |
| 71.26 | Spring | 67.7 |
| 70 | Spring | 59.72 |
| 72.7 | Spring | 46.14 |
| 76.03 | Spring | 22.85 |
| 73.36 | Spring | 42.66 |
| 76.04 | Spring | 52.82 |
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